HISTORICALLY, India and Central Asia were well connected through flows of goods, people, ideas, religions, and empires. In the modern era, this continued during the Soviet period when sister-state relations were established between some of these Soviet Republics and the Indian states and India’s defence imports from the USSR also passed through this region. However, the big caveat is that all engagement between India and Central Asia, during this period, was indirect, through Moscow.

Following the break-up of the USSR, Former Prime Minister (PM) Narasimha Rao realized the strategic importance of the region and was the first Indian head of state to travel to the independent republics – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in 1993, and Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan in 1995. Although India faced some domestic turmoil during this period, which could have constrained its international action, PM Rao’s visit to the region was an important gesture and highlighted the crucial role he believed this region played in India’s strategic landscape.

One of the first strategic formulations that recognized the importance of the region was Sir Halford Mackinder’s Heartland Theory in the early 20th century, which recognized Central Asia as the pivot in the Eurasian heartland, control over which would make way for control over the world. Regrettably, the end of Narasimha Rao’s tenure as prime minister also saw the end of substantial high-level interaction with the region for the next two decades or so.

Recently, India’s ties with the region have been rejuvenated by PM Modi’s visit to this region in 2015. This visit has put the spotlight on the potential for India and Central Asia to consolidate their strategic and economic partnership. While a few other former Indian PMs have visited the region, the interaction has been through sporadic visits sans a focused approach to engagement. The region was always a transitory stop and never the final destination for Indian leaders, with the exception of PM Rao, reflecting Central Asia’s absence in their foreign policy priorities. Therefore, 2015 marked a turning point in India-Central Asia relations as PM Modi visited Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan during a single trip.

This visit was particularly noteworthy as the presence of the PM highlighted that India is extremely interested and committed to building positive relations and contributing to the growth and development of the region. As a result of vestiges from the Soviet period, governmental structures in Central Asia continue to follow a top down approach. Therefore, interactions and dialogues among the highest level of governments play a vital role in establishing a positive relationship with the region.

This renewed effort by India comes at a critical time for Central Asian nations as they are witnessing an influx of Chinese investment and Russia’s enduring influence in the region. While Russia and China will continue to make strides in the security and economic architecture of Central Asia, these nations are looking for viable alternatives, especially in the economic domain, to avoid increasing their dependence on the two neighbours. Further, as China expands its security cooperation with the region, it raises the possibility of Sino-Russian friction in Central Asia. Both these factors provide India with political, strategic and economic space to make its presence felt in the region.

 

After PM Modi’s visit to the individual nations in 2015, India began actively pursuing membership to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Its induction to the SCO in 2017 has helped boost India’s profile in Central Asia, as the interactions among member nations are through the heads of states and highest levels of government. This multilateral platform also offers India an opportunity to interact with the member nations bilaterally on the sidelines of the summits. Thus, it provides India with a comprehensive approach to dealing with Central Asia. The SCO is committed to regional and global stability – one of the most positive outcomes has been the adoption of the ‘Astana Consensus’, which recognizes the importance of the India-China relationship and aims to prevent differences from becoming disputes. This played an important role in resolving the Doklam stand-off in 2017.

Earlier this year, former External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj participated in the inaugural India-Central Asia Dialogue in Uzbekistan. This dialogue exemplifies the various ways in which India is now trying to deepen its strategic and political engagement with the region. Building on the success of the dialogue, its next iteration will be held in India next year. A similar dialogue has regularly been held at the Track II level, at which former Minister of State E. Ahamed had also announced India’s Connect Central Asia Policy in 2012.

 

Apart from the various political and strategic areas that have already been identified by the partners, there is great scope for cooperation in renewable and sustainable energy. While most Central Asian nations are blessed with abundant natural gas and oil resources, they require localized generation of electricity given their dispersed populations. Hence, these nations are also looking to partners like India to assist them with harnessing their potential in the nuclear and renewable energy sectors, particularly solar and wind energy.

Given that the Indian private sector has made great advances in these areas, especially with regard to harnessing wind energy and in the production of pressurized heavy water reactors, this could be a good area of investment for India in the region. In the civil nuclear sector, while India already imports uranium ore from the region, given its existing trilateral civil nuclear cooperation with Russia in Bangladesh, India should also consider working jointly with Russia and regional states in the area of uranium enrichment.

Opportunities for cooperation also exist in the field of telemedicine and e-education. Central Asia has dispersed, as well as low-income populations that are unable to easily access medical and educational facilities. India could begin by initially focusing on just one or two nations in the region – the most populous nations, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, first and then expanding its reach to include the entire region.

Similarly, India should also double-down on its promise to open a university in the region, as part of its 2012 Connect Central Asia policy. For this, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan already have universities that were established with the support of western partners, Kyrgyzstan presents an ideal location due to the absence of similar competition, its central location and the possibility of government support. Alongside this, India should also step up its technical and cultural assistance as other external powers in the region, both the West and China, have focused on providing financial assistance and scholarships to Central Asian students to study at their institutions.

 

To expand its presence in the region, India should also look toward like-minded partners – like the EU – to ensure a positive outcome in Central Asia. Given their shared interests in the region’s development, both sides should establish joint projects in areas such as education, healthcare and pharmaceuticals. The European private sector is already well established in this region and could help pave the way for the Indian private sector as well. Given the region’s vast geographical size and inadequate infrastructure, there are several opportunities to invest in the automobile and railways sectors, which India hasn’t yet focused on.

As Central Asian nations increasingly look toward building their cooperation with India, there are several opportunities for widening and deepening this partnership. India should ensure a focused approach given the region’s vital importance for Indian foreign policy. After all, Central Asia is an extended part of India’s neighbourhood.

 

* In conversation with Rhea Menon and Sharanya Rajiv, Carnegie India.