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DEFEAT, or more likely the prospect of defeat seem to have pushed Prime Minister Modi and the BJP into an unlikely panic. For close to four years the party was on a high, winning, the rare exception apart, all electoral contests. The prime minister himself appeared unassailable and full of confidence. True, his arrogance and hubris were somewhat unseemly, in particular his personalized attacks on opposition leaders as also the proclivity to push himself centre-stage and claim all credit for every initiative as if these were path-breaking. Even moves like demonetization and GST, now shown up as ill-advised, were sought to be defended as courageous interventions designed to reshape the country. Nevertheless, no matter what critics said, there was little denting of the prime minister’s popularity.

Even the hard core loyalists would now admit that all is not well with the ruling coalition, or the PMs leadership. Ever since the Gujarat assembly elections a little over a year back, the non-BJP opposition has only gathered strength and confidence, first winning a series of bye-elections across the country, then acting nimbly to strike a coalition and form government in Karnataka and, most recently, wresting three key Hindi heartland states from the BJP. More significantly, the thrall of fear seem to have lifted, with individuals and organizations much more willing to counter the claims of the government, provide credible and engaging counter narratives and to take to the streets to oppose what are seen as anti-people policies and politics.

None of the recent initiatives taken by the government to regain impetus are likely to help. Take first the Constitution (124th Amendment) Bill, passed virtually unanimously in both houses of Parliament and rapidly signed into law. Described as ‘a ten per cent quota for the poor amongst forward castes’, the provision is designed to aid their admission to educational institutions, including private ones, and for reservation of jobs in public sector appointments up to a maximum of 10% of posts in any category.

Even as we await the outcome of the challenge to this provision in the Supreme Court, it is not clear how this helps the ruling party consolidate its position amongst the upper castes/classes. More likely it will lead to a backlash from groups currently benefiting from the reservation regime, fearful that this will not only eat into their quota as also further lead to escalated demands from groups like the Jats, Patels and Marathas whose attempts to be included in the reserved lists have so far not succeeded. Widely seen as a cynical electoral ploy, with serious negative ramifications for the country, the move has only eroded the credibility of the BJP.

Equally controversial is the Citizen (Amendment) Bill which for the first time seeks to link citizenship to religion in sharp contrast to the ‘idea of India’ upheld in our Constitution. Ostensibly designed to address the issue of ‘illegal migration’ afflicting the states of the North East, the move is seen as undermining the Assam accord and has elicited strong opposition from various political parties, including those supporting the BJP, and generated wide spread protest as faulty drafting and insufficient consultation with affected groups exacerbates an already volatile situation. Clearly, the move to signal its Hindu orientation by specifically earmarking the Muslim community for exclusion has not only exposed the BJPs nefarious design as also weakened its electoral support in a region where it was hoping to consolidate and expand its foothold.

One can add to the list. The revision of GDP growth estimates to both bolster the economic performance claims of the Modi government as also downgrade the performance in the UPA era has elicited widespread criticism from experts. Already under fire for not being able to deliver on employment and growth, or recover ‘black’ money and so on, this revision exercise is being seen as a desperate move to resuscitate the narrative of achhe din, a slogan and a promise which had an important role in propelling Narendra Modi to power.

But nothing exposes the panic of the regime more than its intemperate attacks on parties, individuals and institutions, including the wanton use of the draconian sedition law against critics. When respected academics and activists like Hiren Gohain or Anand Teltumbde, to name only the most recent, are charged under an archaic colonial law for merely voicing their opposition to proposed policy or legislation and efforts are intensified to stifle debate and dissent, it is clear that the leadership has panicked. Whether or not these moves yield dividend – one hopes that they are decisively rejected – it does appear that the prime minister and his associates are willing to transcend all norms of democratic politics to win. And surely that is not healthy for our polity.

Harsh Sethi