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SIMILAR to the recent midterm elections in the United States, the results of the just concluded contests to five states in India, three of them in the Hindi heartland, have given a jolt to the Modi-Shah led BJP. For the first time since 2014, the party has suffered a substantial reversal. Even as analysts quibble over their characterization of the verdicts – whether these represent a Congress victory or a BJP defeat – what is undeniable is a lifting of the mood. With the seeming invincibility of the Modi-Shah combine now dented electorally, the pall of fear marking public discourse, forcing critics of government and party policies to be unnaturally circumspect, will be less marked.

As both Yogendra Yadav and Pratap Bhanu Mehta pointed out in their first reactions, there is a ‘taming of the hubris of political powers’ and a clear signal that the voice and concerns of the people can no longer be treated lightly. The fact that the BJP has failed to register any win and that opposition parties have a larger presence can only be good for Indian democracy. Above all, no longer does anyone believe that the elections of 2019 are a done deal..

The trends of dissatisfaction have been visible for some time now. There is today greater agreement that the BJP regimes, both at the Centre and in the states, have been unable to meet the demands and expectations of the voters. The claim of improving the living conditions of agriculturists, despite a flurry of schemes, has proven hollow. Witness the growing intensity of farmer protests across the country. Equally significant is the spectre of growing unemployment, particularly agita-ting the aspirational youth. For the first time since 2014, the farm community and first time voters, both of whom had extensively supported the BJP in the regions where it was victorious, seem to have deserted the party. Similarly, both demonetization and an ill-planned and poorly executed GST have alienated substantial sections of the wealth producing communities, specially small and medium enterprises and those in the informal sector, resulting in, for the first time in decades, a major erosion of support in urban areas.

Equally contentious have been the social and cultural policies pushed by the BJP. Be it recourse to ‘food politics’ resulting in a disastrous curbing of cattle trade alongside a dangerous growth of cow vigilantism, or the reinsertion of the Ram Mandir and associated temple politics as a key demand – the decline in social cohesion and peace by directly targeting members of minority communities and marginalized sections, has ‘arguably’ not gone down well even among the Hindu faithful. Stoking pride in the majority faith and traditions by undermining the ‘other’, even if it secures the loyal base, may well alienate other potential voters without whose support it is difficult to win in a multicultural polity. Clearly the BJPs belief that it can energize the hotheads for electoral gain and rein them in once in power needs to be rethought.

Much will now depend upon how the major political players read the recent verdicts and trends and recalibrate their strategies. Even as Prime Minister Modi remains by far the ‘most popular’ leader in the country, there is no denying that his aura has dimmed. As long as he, and Amit Shah, were delivering victories, few within his cabinet, party and associated organizations were willing to question his working style, policies or programmes. Now as the chinks are visible this may no longer hold true. The proclivity to control all institutions of governance, constitutional and regulatory bodies and civil society organizations is also proving counterproductive.

One hopes that the Congress does not over-read the recent verdicts. Though stronger and more confident than what it was a few months back, it must realize that more than having won the elections (which it did in Chhattisgarh), the people have voted against the BJP. In both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh the contest was closer than it needed to be. Clearly the party’s penchant for converting advantage into weakness, reflected in its candidate selection, manifesto and campaign strategy needs alteration. What the voters expect from it is performance and a clear signal that it is willing to change, not gloating over having bested the BJP.

The end of 2018 has given a warning to the BJP and helped open up the forthcoming contest of 2019. The five ‘M’ (money, machine, media, morale and Modi) advantage of the BJP has reduced which, whatever the eventual results, is better for us, voters and citizens. Even while acknowledging that the mood of the nation can change in the next few months, if all of us work resolutely at holding our political class to account, Indian democracy should emerge stronger.

Harsh Sethi