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A lot, maybe too much, was riding on the recently concluded midterm elections in the US, and not just for the country. Deeply distressed by the toxic and divisive politics emblematic of the Trump presidency, many hoped that the ‘best’ of American democratic traditions would reassert themselves and push back if not defeat the Trump project. Unfortunately, the US electorate, despite greater engagement and enthusiasm than seen in recent years, failed to deliver. Apparently, the Trump message still resonates with the faithful. So even as the Democrats managed to wrest control of the Congress, and a higher number of governorships, the Republicans increased their tally in the Senate, thus permitting both sides to claim victory.

More disturbingly, a detailed breakdown of voting figures reveals a deeply divided country – by race, region, age, gender and occupation – laying bare the faultlines in American society and political culture, demonstrating once again the difficulties in constructing a shared imagination. Evidently President Trump’s rhetoric on imagined threats to the American way of life, most starkly in the debate over immigration, managed to crowd out efforts at reasoned policy debate about issues like healthcare which should matter more.

Much will now depend on how Donald Trump reads and responds to the results. On current indications it does not appear that he will dial down and make any serious effort at bipartisanship and reach out to the opposition, step back from his fear mongering and treating all opposition as anti-national. Moreover, if he manages to paint the Democratic challenge to his legislative agenda as a ‘conspiracy’ to block his attempts at cleansing the country of ‘elite’ control, the coming days are likely to turn even more acrimonious.

Like the US, India today too seems to be on a crossroads. With only a few months to go before the next general elections in 2019, the outcome of the ongoing midterm elections to the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram are likely to have a major impact, not merely on the longevity of the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah dispensation at the Centre but possibly on the future shape of India. Similar to the US, the contests are less about the performance of the incumbent governments, their record in fulfilling their previous promises and ushering in achche din and more about whether the electorate continues to repose trust and faith in the leadership of the prime minister. This, at least, is the attempt. Relying on his time-tested strategy of cleverly mixing aspirations for vikas, stoking fear about imaginary threats of illegal migration and Maoist radicals and painting his political opposition as roadblocks to progress if not anti-national, Narendra Modi is hoping to turn the elections as a referendum on himself.

He has in the process both personalized and centralized decision making to an unprecedented degree, thereby weakening all regulatory institutions, including the legislature and cabinet. Simultaneously, he has facilitated the normalization of a toxic political discourse painting all dissent as anti-national. Finally, is his proclivity to deploy various institutions from the CBI, Enforcement Directorate, the Central Vigilance Commission, even the Election Commission, to target the opposition in an effort to weaken and divide it.

This, unfortunately for Narendra Modi and the BJP is a high risk strategy which may well backfire, particularly since the Modi years have not resulted in any substantial improvement in societal well-being. Celebrating improvements in the ease of doing business does little to counter the growing disquiet over weakening economic growth and continuing joblessness, deepening agrarian distress and the unease over growing social strife, vigilantism and lawlessness. Recourse to questionable policy moves like demonetization, hasty and ill-prepared introduction of GST or restrictions on cattle trade have only worsened matters. Similarly, reigniting the debate on the Ram Mandir, attempts at renaming cities, indulging in politics over food choices, and so on, not only exposes the frailty of government but also yields ground to hardliners who may be difficult to reign in.

Predicting election results is always a hazardous exercise. Nevertheless, if the pre-election buzz is to be believed, the BJP faces an uphill task in retaining power in the states it rules or make substantial gains elsewhere. The party’s formidable election machine combined with its overwhelming access to funding may still prove insufficient if the electorate has already made up its mind to chastise the BJP and vote for change. In the event that this indeed is the outcome, will a weakened Narendra Modi-led BJP reconsider its strategy of continuing with its aggressive agenda, reach out to the opposition and help lower political temperatures or will it further up the ante remains to be seen. On that rests the future of the country.

Harsh Sethi