The problem

‘Cry Havoc!

and let slip the dogs of war.’

– Shakespeare (Julius Caesar)

THE creation of Israel and a theocratic Pakistan has posed grave problems – neither the Palestinian issue nor Kashmir has been wholly resolved. The Partition created a plethora of problems. In Kashmir, Sheikh Abdullah did not fully fathom the fallout of Partition in North India or what Nehru was trying to do in order to protect the Muslims in the country. So Kashmir, due to its complexities, has always remained troubled except that the recent deterioration is worse than ever before. It is like a bus hurtling downhill towards violence and chaos, because its brakes have failed. We appear to have lost the handle.

Not long ago, Mehbooba Mufti, while she was still chief minister, had predicted that the valley was headed for ‘chaos’ if measures were not taken to contain the anger and discontent of the youth. Simultaneously, her brother Tassaduq Mufti had said that the PDP alliance with the BJP was a ‘crime’, which an entire generation of Kashmiris might have to pay for with their blood. That the coalition would not survive the year was common talk in Srinagar. The Kashmiris, however, liked to believe that Mehbooba would walk out, little realizing that the levers controlling that eventuality were always with Delhi. Today, governor’s rule, which was also very much in the air, has been instituted.

The problem with governor’s rule is that beyond a point it becomes counterproductive. Assessing the period from 1990 to 1996 clearly establishes this contention. The Kashmir Assembly has still not been dissolved, indicating that other plans may be afoot. However, the arithmetic and the mood in the valley leaves little option other than declaring fresh elections. And, the sooner they are held the greater the likelihood of a new, hopefully better, configuration emerging. Otherwise we will be waiting for another Narasimha Rao whose master stroke in 1996 had dealt a severe blow to militancy.

The magic of democracy is that hardliners and separatists get mainstreamed. That is what the 2002 election did and to some extent that has been our endeavour since the accession of Kashmir to India. But more shocking has been the dastardly assassination on 14 June 2018 of Shujaat Bukhari, the brightest journalist and one of the most moderate voices in the valley. He had been a committed votary of dialogue, having repeatedly warned of alienation, increased militancy and an all-pervasive fear, where no one would feel safe.

Perhaps, Bukhari himself had a premonition of death. He is said to have approached the chief minister only a few days before his assassination and asked for increased security. Yet, no amount of security could possibly have saved him from the determination of his killers; sixteen bullets were pumped into him. History, it is said, repeats itself first as tragedy, the second time more tragically. Kashmir is currently back to the situation that prevailed in the early 1990s, or worse, and many Kashmiris fear the state may never be the same again.

A new generation Kashmiri born after 1989-90 has seen little peace, more so in recent times. Protests never seem to register and there is a feeling of injustice and hopelessness. So the gun remains the only ‘messiah’ for the youth. The cruel irony is that even as Kashmiris gathered in huge numbers for Shujaat’s funeral, a record number of 1,40,00 Muslims were celebrating Eid in Birmingham. In Afghanistan, Taliban fighters joined Afghan soldiers, Tajiks, Pashtuns and Hazaras to celebrate the Eid festival, as both sides agreed to a three-day ceasefire. President Ashraf Ghani, no doubt prompted by Trump, announced that the government was prepared to extend the ceasefire and start formal negotiations to end the war. In the meantime Trump found a new friend in Kim Jong-un.

Our muscular policy and operation ‘All Out’ are fine. The security and intelligence services have a job to do and have always responded splendidly in J&K. But Kashmir is not just a military or law and order problem; it is more political and emotive. Every heavy-handed response further fuels the cause of the separatists. The ‘encounter’ strategy has pushed Kashmir into a situation where violence has become the norm. Every ‘encounter’ is followed by cordon and search operations, and invariably, vast public funerals. Every time a militant is killed, people come out in the thousands. And every militant killed gives birth to several more. The situation is tailor-made for Pakistan, which is having a free ride with little to do except fan the ‘intifada’, encourage militancy and finance opposition to Delhi.

Sadly we have no counter narrative. India’s strength lies in its soft power. We should at least use smart power in Kashmir as Prime Minister Vajpayee did in 1999-2004, notwithstanding Kargil, Kandhar and the attack on Parliament. Kashmir and Kashmiri society then rejected militants and militancy because of Vajpayee’s humanist approach and reassurances that Kashmir did not need force to hold it; hence the exceptional affection for Vajpayee.

General Musharraf and Manmohan Singh almost reached a settlement on the Line of Control that Farooq Abdullah has been advocating for the last 30 years; if only the window of opportunity had not been lost in 2006-07. India-Pakistan relations had never been better than at that time.

When Narendra Modi was elected prime minister, Mirwaiz Maulvi Umar Farooq was one of the first to congratulate him hoping that he would follow Vajpayee’s path. But alas, that was not to be and the Kashmiri still believes that if there is one way forward, it is the Vajpayee way. Finding a way out of any volatile mess requires a willingness to listen, to engage, to talk. As President Nyerere once said, ‘The world doesn’t give us much time.’ We need to adapt quickly. The key is patience, adaptability, and empathy. Dialogue is the only way out.

If the Afghans demand peace, as President Ashraf Ghani says, the Kashmiris crave peace. Even though militants are now available for free in Kashmir, whereas earlier Pakistan paid for them, and the separatists are again supporting militancy, the overwhelming mood is still for peace and dialogue. But unfortunately there appear to be no takers. There is little reason to think that this is just a passing phase. The longer it continues the more enduring the consequences are likely to be.

To solve any problem a good start would be by asking the real questions that need to be answered. Never has hope and reconciliation been needed more. Kashmir could still change if only we could provide accommodation, self-respect, dignity, honour and justice to the people. This would be more than any ‘azadi’ Kashmir could wish for. As the former Pakistan ISI Chief Asad Durrani says, Kashmir could be the bridge to provide a sense of comfort to South Asia. This issue of Seminar attempts to address a range of issues in historical perspective.

A.S. DULAT