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EVEN as it is hazardous to over-read the results of bye-elections and premature to forecast ‘the beginning of the end’ of the Narendra Modi regime, there is little denying that the unanticipated results of the recently concluded contests in Gorakhpur and Phulpur in Uttar Pradesh, seats vacated by the incumbent chief minister and deputy chief minister of the state, and Araria in Bihar have not only stunned the BJP and given a fresh fillip to an otherwise dispirited opposition, they have helped crack the veneer of invincibility that has so far cloaked the Modi-Shah combine. Moreover, they have contributed to lifting the pall of fear that has of late suffused public discourse over the policies, programmes and politics practised by the ruling party. With both the media and the citizens now more emboldened to air their views, hopefully, we can look forward to a resumption of normal, competitive politics.

The recent results, even if not signifying a trend are not an aberration. Starting from Gujarat towards the end of 2017, when an otherwise written-off and dismissed Congress party displayed an unusual resolve during the campaign and nearly staged an upset, to the impressive turnaround victories in Ajmer and Alwar in Rajasthan, it appears that the tide has been turning for the BJP. And while its impressive victories in the North East may have provided some relief and bragging points, few any longer believe that 2019 is a done deal.

While the top leadership of the BJP – Narendra Modi and Amit Shah – have so far maintained an uncharacteristic silence, lesser leaders and party apologists have advanced a range of excuses – that the party had become complacent (a few even added the word arrogant) and thus failed to invest its usual energy in the contests; that its star campaigner Narendra Modi did not address any rallies; and that the opposition, in the case of UP – the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party – had come together in an unholy coalition and played ‘caste’ politics in a desperate bid to deny the BJP a win, a short-term opportunistic tactic with no long-term prospects. This clearly is a case of living in denial.

In a perceptive analysis, Mohammad Faisal (The Wire, 18 March 2018) points out that these reasons are flimsy. Though the prime minister did not campaign, Chief Minister Adityanath held 17 rallies (12 Gorakhpur, 5 Phulpur), knowing well that losing these seats within a year of sweeping the assembly elections would have an adverse effect on the perception of invincibility that the party has cultivated. Moreover, many members of his cabinet were stationed in these constituencies and over a dozen Union ministers and MPs campaigned for the party. And while the turnout was lower than in the previous Parliament and Assembly elections, it is clear that a simple aggregation of the SP and BSP past votes would not have resulted in a victory. Evidently the BJP was unable to enthuse its core voters to vote and, additionally, lost the support of many of the smaller Dalit and OBC castes which had earlier contributed to its remarkable victory. Even the attempt to divide the electorate on communal grounds failed.

Four years into its reign, the BJP formula of pronouncements, slogans and promises, combined with blaming the opposition for every conceivable ill from corruption to malgovernance which once so enthused a younger, aspirational electorate, now sounds stale and tired. None of the promises of acche din – employment for all, an end to corruption, and a reinvigoration of national pride – have, to any meaningful degree, translated into ground reality. And while economists can continue to debate the finer nuances of growth and employment figures, or point to the Sensex and promises of fresh investment, foreign and domestic, it is difficult to deny the growing resentment, unrest and social strife afflicting all sectors – farmers, industry, youth.

More specifically, the continuing neglect of the farm sector and worse, the ideologically driven policy of imposing restrictions on cattle trade dealt a severe blow which even the announcement of loan waivers or the promise of implementing a more remunerative minimum support price scheme have failed to enthuse. The spate of farmer protests all over the country, most recently in Maharashtra, are a clear indication of a rural turn away from the BJP. Both demonetization and the GST, hailed as revolutionary reforms and a political masterstroke following UP 2017, are today being blamed for all conceivable ills. Finally, the series of corporate scams, alarmingly adding to NPAs in public sector banks, as also the fact that many of the ‘accused’ managed to ‘escape’ abroad, has severely dented the anti-corruption claims of the party and its leadership.

Forecasting elections a year ahead is a mug’s game. The BJP may well bounce back if it pulls up its socks and the opposition parties fail to learn from their past misadventures. Meanwhile, let us celebrate that we are no longer a nation in fear.

Harsh Sethi