THE dynamic spectrum of connectivity has always presented itself as the thread and the axle of interaction and interdependence between the geographically contiguous regions of the world. The complex nature of South Asian politics has always prevailed over geo-economic considerations. As a result, this region has emerged as an internally disconnected but otherwise geographically contiguous zone. Though the necessity of seamless connectivity and interdependence to facilitate trade and investment between South Asian states has been acknowledged since the inception of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in 1985, the reality has been rather different. The inability of the SAARC to progress has affected its regional programmes, particularly those aimed at promoting connectivity among member states through economic cooperation.

As of now, accounting for only about 5% of the intra-regional trade¹ marked by both asymmetry and a lack of inclusiveness, South Asia hopes to construct a new strategic identity indicating a shift from idealism to realism and help form a BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) nexus that would emerge as a successful sub-region. As India-Pakistan relations continue to remain a major irritant, it becomes relevant to encourage understanding among the eastern neighbours of South Asia and promote sub-regional cooperation. The growing trend of sub-regionalism has made seamless connectivity and communication the fulcrum of social and commercial inter-action which is required to make the partnership successful. The BBIN MVA (Motor Vehicle Agreement), signed in 2015 is such a shift to identify the ‘low-hanging fruits’ or the incremental steps towards such an ambition.

Against this backdrop, the primary aim of this essay is twofold: (a) to analyse the challenges and possibilities of identifying the BBIN as a hinterland of the Bay of Bengal which covers more than 2,173,000 square kilometres of water; and (b) to understand the dynamics of facilitation for all the four partner countries to work towards strengthening connectivity. It is only by ensuring enhanced connectivity through roadways, railways and waterways, along with access to maritime and land ports that the aspiration of the sub-region can be fulfilled. In this context it is important to understand the benefits of harnessing the significance of the bay through profound possibilities like two of the most robust frameworks coming together through a collaboration between the BBIN and BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) that may be put forward as natural allies.

 

The inherent ability of the BBIN as a sub-region of worth can be well established from Table 1 itself. It reflects the dynamic GDP (in US billion USD), GDP growth percentage and the percentage of inflation prevailing in the four countries. According to the 2016-17 database of the World Bank, there has been a notable rise in the growth rate percentage, with Bangladesh at 6.8%, Bhutan at 9.9%, India at 7.6% and Nepal at 5%. Covering around 20% of the world’s population, the aim of creating the sub-region is to bring these countries together to extract the overall total economic capacity that would in turn add to the growth of South Asia as a whole.

Table 2 shows the present share of imports and exports of the member countries in terms of percentage of GDP. Keeping in mind these figures, if better facilities are made available in the form of multi-modal connectivity and better access and support to and from the Indian and Bangladesh ports then these values can add to greater BBIN trade progress. Moreover, the land ports of the landlocked countries like Banglabandha, used in transaction between Bangladesh and Bhutan, can also help to boost economic progress.

 

While considering the BBIN as an area of focus, the horizon can be widened beyond BBIN MVA. The BBIN is more than just a road connectivity agreement. It has its roots ingrained in the overall and holistic accommodation of the sub-region into one whole. The specific routes that can bring out the best of the arena and may provide efficient regional multimodal connectivity comprising road, rail and waterways are:

Kolkata to Chittagong via Benapole-Jessore-Dhaka; Chittagong to Siliguri via Dhaka-Hatikumrul-Bogra-Rangpur-Burhimari; Dhaka to Thimphu (Bhutan) via Hatikumrul-Bogra-Rangpur-Burhimari through India’s Chengrhabanda-Joygaon and Bhutan’s Phuentsholing; Dhaka-Kathmandu via Hatikumrul-Bogra-Rangpur-Banglabanda through India’s Phulbarhi-Panitanki and Nepal’s Kakrhavita; Kolkata to Samdrup Jongkhar (Bhutan) via Dhaka-Sarail-Sylhet-Tamabil through India’s Dawki-Shillong-Guwahati; and Khulna to Kolkata via Jessore-Benapole.

The land routes and the waterways can be combined together by invoking the India-Bangladesh Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade Agreement signed in 1972 and the MVA to enhance access to the Bay of Bengal in general for members of the sub-region and for landlocked countries like Nepal and Bhutan in particular. It is noteworthy that this kind of an integrated inland river system would not disrupt the ecosystem; a concern advanced by Bhutan for not signing the MVA.²

 

The importance of land connectivity can be best realized when rail and road links are extended to the nearest ports. Inland waterways hold immense potential for achieving multi-modal connectivity. One convenient way is the comprehensive development of the inland waterways that will not only help in providing cheap transportation of cargo and passengers but also in infrastructure and skill development with greater data sharing.

For India and Bangladesh, connectivity through waterways holds great potential for both economic and people to people links. The India-Bangladesh Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade was first signed in 1972. Recently in April 2015, the two countries decided to automatically renew the protocol every five years. Under the protocol, India and Bangladesh agreed to use inland waterways for the passage of goods between two places of one country through the territory of the other, as well as for inter-country trade. The protocol provides for a 50:50 ratio for sharing on tonnage basis for inter-country and transit cargo by Indian and Bangladeshi vessels.³ Under this protocol, the following ports of call in each country have been nominated for facilitating inter-country trade: India – Kolkata, Haldia, Karimganj, Silghat and Pandu; Bangladesh – Narayananganj, Khulna, Mongla, Ashuganj and Sirajganj.

 

Bangladesh enjoys a strategic location within the Inland Waterway Transport Authority (IWT), providing large inland vessels and other maritime transport service, primarily during the monsoons. The ports of Chittagong, Mongla and the still developing Payra are associated with the hinterland by rivers along with 29 river ports. There is also the large-scale involvement of the private sector that came forward to establish container terminals in Bangladesh. Despite the presence of the routes, pressing issues like need of dredging, lack of assured fairways and night navigation facilities, over-regulation of customs services, need of permission from authorities for each voyage, and so on, need greater attention.

While discussing the India-Bangladesh protocol routes, it must be pointed out that National Waterway (NW) 2 is the main protocol route from the Indian side (Kolkata-Sundarban-Chalna-Khulna-Mongla, Kaukhali-Barisal-Narayanganj-Aricha-Dhubri-Pandua. Apart from NW 1 there is NW 6 that bifurcates from Narayangaj towards Bhairabbajar-Ajmerganj-Karimganj-Lakhipur.⁴ So far as connectivity between India’s landlocked region like the Northeast and Bangladesh is concerned, NW16 (river Barak) which connects the Northeast with Kolkata through India-Bangladesh protocol routes has also become very important. It covers the hinterland of Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura in addition to Assam. NW 16 diverges from Narayangaj towards Bhairabbajar-Ajmerganj-Karimganj-Lakhipur. This is the new route over Kusiyara and Barak rivers which are connected to the Brahmaputra. But these routes are seasonal in nature.⁵

The Namami Brahmaputra River Festival organized by the Assam state government (April 2017) conveys the need to revive waterway connectivity of the pre-independence period. NW 2 and NW 16 are being promoted by the Assam government. As part of the bigger picture, it is clear that Assam and its waterways can play a central role in connecting India with the ASEAN countries. This is to be seen in the context of India’s Act East Policy wherein the focus is on expanding political, economic and socio-cultural linkages with Southeast Asia.⁶

 

The BBIN sub-region hosts Nepal and Bhutan who are in dire need of accessing the outlets in the bay region for trade and transport. For this they have to rely on overland transit through neighbouring countries to make use of sea ports. Most of this overseas trade to/from Nepal and Bhutan is currently carried through Kolkata which is governed by a transit agreement regarding the export and import movements to/from third countries. If they can have better access to India and Bangladesh through seamless connectivity agreements, both the smaller countries would ensure an advantageous position for themselves.

Multimodal transport facilities have become the sole determinant of imports and exports in Nepal. Terminals at Birganj, Nepal, along with the proper access to the Kolkata port are in operation. Alongside, utilization of the Visakhapatnam (Vizag) port is picking up pace as well. Significant improvements have also been witnessed in rail links despite the damage to railway infrastructure such as the snapping of the key Darbhanga-Sitamari-Raxaul rail link during the devastating floods in North Bihar in August 2017. The link was restored three months later.⁷

 

This facility gained a lot of prominence as is evident from the import of nearly 300 containers, mostly carrying pulses from Myanmar through Vizag. There is also the attraction of higher rail freight here as the distance from Birgunj is double that of Kolkata. However, the prevalence of lower sea freight and higher efficiency as compared to the Kolkata port, is making the Vizag port cost-competitive for users. The tardiness of the Kolkata port which takes around seven long days to unload containers from the ships and then load them on to the rakes has become a major concern. It was noted that in October the ‘pendency rate’ (containers waiting to be loaded in rakes) at Kolkata was 1,200 TEUs, (twenty foot equivalent unit). Imports are costly and there are detention fees associated with it as well, making the situation more complex. However, the hope is that the Sitamarhi rail link will be potent enough to reduce the distance between Kolkata and Birgunj, which in turn would bring down the turnaround time for the rakes and increase capacity utilization of the Himalayan terminals in the coming months.⁸

 

In Bhutan, the non-navigability of rivers by large vessels is a major problem. So there has to be loading and unloading by road. The port at Sahibganj on the Ganga can be of much support. It must be mentioned here that the India and Bangladesh Protocol on Inland Water Transit and Trade has benefitted Bhutan in such a way that Narayanganj is also used as one of the hubs by Bhutan.⁹ Though Bangladesh and Bhutan have a well established Memorandum of Understanding, 2014, on the protocol of transit and trade on the usage of the Bangladeshi maritime facilities and sustainable trade, a more structured framework would be of benefit. There is also a suggestion for developing a dry port near Phuentsholing.¹⁰

One of the most important waterways being developed by the Government of India is NW1 under the Jal Marg Vikas Project. This is a 1,620 km long Ganga-Bhagirathi-Hooghly river system from Allahabad to Haldia. With the World Bank providing financial and technical support, this project is expected to lead to extensive economic and social development of the hinterland along the banks of the river Ganga. The project would enable the commercial navigation of vessels with a capacity of 1500-2000 tons. The project includes the development of a fairway with three meters depth; multi-modal terminals at Varanasi, Haldia, and Sahibganj; strengthening of the river navigation system; conservancy works; modern River Information System (RIS); Digital Global Positioning System (DGPS); night navigation facilities; modern methods of channel marking; and the construction of a new state of the art navigational lock at Farakka. The successful completion of the Jal Marg Vikas Project will benefit Nepal and Bhutan as well.¹¹ However, with regard to Nepal and Bhutan, an average year round draft has to be maintained as well, along with proper infrastructural developments.

 

The Kalghat terminal (Bihar) would enable transportation of cargo from Kolkata to Nepal. Further, the Gazipur terminal would facilitate the transportation of LNG to Nepal. Note that the Jal Marg Vikas Project will, in addition, procure 25 LNG fuelled vessels or barges to promote the use of the waterway. A total of 60-65 vessels will be procured under the project. A beginning has been made and goods are already being transported through inland waterways. The cargo movement for the landlocked Nepal and Bhutan is in part taking place through the riverine route till Sahebgunj, from where trucks move goods to Nepal and Bhutan. It is estimated that this has reduced transport costs by 30%. River Gandak and Kosi also have the potential to be connected to this NW 1.¹² There is ample scope for reviving riverine transport. As some of the river systems of Nepal meet the river Ganges in NW1, the possibility of Nepal directly accessing the Bay of Bengal through this waterway needs to be explored. The techno-feasibility studies of Ghagra, Gandak and Kosi rivers will also provide insights into the prospect of connecting Nepal and India through waterways. India is also building an intermodal terminal at Kalughat near Patna specifically to cater to Nepal bound cargo traffic demands from Kolkata. Other terminals like Gazipur and Sahebgunj on NW 1 too can handle the distribution of such cargo traffic.

 

It is connectivity alone that can bring together the formation of the BBIN as a strategic area of the Bay of Bengal and would generate greater trade, prosperity and betterment of the people living in these areas. All four partners would be equally benefitted through the roadways, railways, as well as waterways. In fact, if this framework works, the landlocked countries will also have access to the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project from Kolkata to Myanmar. India is devising strategic projects to bridge the Feni river in Tripura that will finally connect the Chittagong port. Similarly, a bridge over the Mechi river will link Bhadrapur in Nepal with Galgalia in Bihar. However, problems like the lack of physical connectivity, inadequate governance and insufficient services still constitute significant bottlenecks. Here lies need to engage the multiple stakeholders who would invest in greater trade, connectivity and cooperation through knowledge sharing and people to people interaction.

 

Footnotes:

1. Trade in South Asia, http://www.worldbank. org/en/programs/south-asia-regional-integration

2. Trade of Bangladesh with the landlocked countries: http://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/bangladesh-bhutan-india-and-nepal-motor-vehicles-agreement/

3. Anasua Basy Ray Chaydhury and Pratnashree Basu, India Bangladesh Connectivity: Possibilities and Challenges. Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, 2015, pp. 31-32.

4. Ibid., pp. 33-34.

5. Ibid.

6. The Namami Brahmaputra River Festival. https://yourstory.com/2017/03/namami-brahmaputra/

7. World Bank Country Profile, https://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/country-profiles

8. https://thehimalayantimes.com/business/nepal-bound-containers-stuck-kolkata-port/

9. Bangladesh-Bhutan Trade and Transit Agreement 2014:

http://www.moea.gov.bt/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/MoU-on-Use-of-Inland-Waterways-for-Transportation-of-Bilateral-T-Scanned.pdf

10. Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury and Pratnashree Basu, India’s Connectivity with Himalayan Neighbours: Possibilities and Challenges. Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, 2017, pp. 84-85.

11. http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease. aspx?relid=159372

12. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/logistics/jal-marg-v ikas/article 9711712.ece