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HALF way into his term, Prime Minister Narendra Modi arguably faces the toughest challenge of his somewhat tempestuous political career. Most other politicians would have been cowed down, if not broken, by the scrutiny and criticism he was subjected to following the 2002 ‘killings’ in Gujarat, not merely from the ‘secular’ opposition but by senior leaders of his party. Today, a decade and half on, howsoever reluctantly, one needs to admit that he has weathered that storm. His use of the entire repertoire available to wielders of power –saam, daam, dand, bhed – without due concern for legal integrity or ethics to ‘discredit’ and ‘silence’ critics while directing media and public attention to other, more proximate, concerns, could well serve as case material for political analysts. It is thus instructive that currently many more, including his erstwhile admirers, wonder whether the Modi mystique is fraying, and that he might be on a slippery slope. True, given the thrall he is held in, few are willing to openly articulate their opposition but there is little doubt that should he falter, the knives will be out.

Few other politicians in post-independence India have shown as great a willingness to take risks. In his embrace of a deliberate politics of disruption and change by building on aspirations, opportunity and technology, Narendra Modi has unsettled the earlier certitudes of Indian politics and changed the rules of the game, not merely for opposition politicians but for those in his own party and affiliated organizations. Unfortunately, while so far successful in retaining his personal popularity, he has made himself the locus of all power, a high-risk strategy since now there is no one but him to shoulder the blame should events not unfold as per plan.

Midway into his term, we are no longer dealing with the promise of Narendra Modi, the hard sell of achche din. Citizens at large have by now had the opportunity of assessing for themselves which one of his regime’s promises and programmes have delivered, and how much. Our relations with the outside world, neighbours and otherwise, are hardly less fraught then they were when he assumed power despite his frantic travels abroad and keenness to demonstrate a personal relationship with foreign leaders. And nothing captures this better than our now hot, now cold engagement with Pakistan, significantly discrediting the claim of having reduced the dangers of terrorism. Even the much lauded ‘surgical strike’ against terror bases in Pakistan has been shown up to be a nonstarter.

Of far greater importance is the record on the economy – from giving a kick-start to investment, particularly in infrastructure, creating new jobs, and controlling corruption. These too have been shown up as more hawa than substance. Even though economists and policy planners realize that the degrees of freedom available to any national government in an interconnected global economy are low, and that the fate of the Indian economy rests on a pick-up in the US, Europe and China, a restive populace which had invested high hope in Modi’s campaign promises, is less likely to be as understanding.

Equally unclear is the impact of Narendra Modi’s latest move – demonetization. At the moment, what was claimed to be only a short-term disruption with significant long-term benefits – from extinguishing black money and illegal currency, eliminating corruption and by seeking to reduce the role of currency in our economy, putting into place a ‘cleaner’ India better equipped to attract investment and do business – appears a chimera. What is evident is a significant slowing down of the economy and a loss of jobs, particularly in the informal small-scale sectors and in agriculture, and a significant deepening of inequality, with the poorer and marginal sections of society taking a far bigger hit than the well-off.

This is why the impending elections to five state assemblies – Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur – have acquired such significance. In the event that the BJP does not fare well, there is little doubt that both Prime Minister Modi and party chief Amit Shah will be under severe pressure, both from an energized opposition as also dissident elements from within their own party. More so since they have made the elections – particularly in Uttar Pradesh – a referendum on the prime minister, his government’s performance and his style of ruling.

Whatever the results, Indian electoral politics is likely to experience a qualitative change. A victory for the BJP will greatly strengthen Narendra Modi, further centralizing power, with possibly a negative long-term impact on our democracy. His loss may well usher in a phase of uncertainty, at least till the polity manages to strike a new equilibrium. In either case, Narendra Modi will have lived up to his reputation of being a game changer, just not in the way he may have imagined.

Harsh Sethi