Comment

Punjab in ferment

PUNJAB in recent months has lurched from one crisis to another – from economic to political. Only two months back the state was reeling under the aftershock of a spate of farmers’ suicides that led to wide protests in wake of the destruction of the cotton crop, with farmers demanding compensation from the government, accusing it of irregularity in the purchase and distribution of spurious pesticides. Soon thereafter, Punjab had to face massive mass rage sparked off by incidents of desecration of the revered Guru Granth Sahib at several places. Just prior to these incidents, the public was subjected to the sorry spectacle of the SGPC/Akal Takht flip-flop as the Dera Sacha Sauda chief was first pardoned for allegedly impersonating the tenth Sikh Guru, a decision that had to be rapidly recanted following state-wide protest.

As of now, much of the resentment/protest is directed against the Akali government for all these incidents. If the prevailing discontent and anger is not managed in time, it can easily turn into ethnic violence and lawlessness, given the active stoking of trouble by miscreants. Trying to take advantage of the situation, a section of radicals Sikhs led by SAD (Amritsar) President Simranjit Singh Mann called a Sarbat Khalsa and proceeded to appoint the killer of Beant Singh as the interim Jathedar of the Akal Takht, a move that triggered large-scale arrest of the organizers by the state police. These incidents underline the both gravity of the situation in the state, as well as the ‘slipping’ control of the Badal leadership over Sikh politics.

Looking at the larger picture, the mass rage is not only about people’s hurt religious sentiments, reigniting the painful memories of the days of militancy or even about the lack of adequate compensation for the loss of the cotton crop. Arguably, the incidents have provided an outlet to a disillusioned people to vent their frustration resulting from widespread corruption and a politics of intimidation that has prevailed for some time in the state given the well-entrenched nexus between the politicians and the mafias. The state’s economy continues to suffer due to the stagnation in the agricultural sector as the green revolution seems to have run its course and many industries have closed down. Few seem to be convinced with the oft-repeated government explanations for the economic deceleration: costly war against militancy; neglect of the industrial sector by the Centre; special treatment meted out to the neighbouring states to the detriment of Punjab’s interests.

What has further constrained the government in meeting the challenges is the absence of effort on the part of the BJP to enthuse its cadres to ensure ethnic peace despite the many provocations, or offer meaningful help to the chief minister who is under tremendous pressure, given that some Akali leaders have even resigned over the issue. This is clearly a personal challenge for Badal senior who is widely seen as instrumental in redirecting the Akali Dal agenda from ethnicity based issues to those concerning development and peace and enjoys the image of a moderate leader and a reconciler. Radical Akali factions as well as the Congress have, however, blamed Badal senior for undermining the authority of sacred Sikh institutions, using them for electoral gains (refer the pardon issue) and turning what was once a cadre based and ideologically driven party like the SAD into a ‘family concern’.

To further compound the Akali Dal-led government problems, its long-term partner, the BJP has added to its woes by distancing itself from the fire-fighting effort. From its actions in the recent past, the BJP seems to be contemplating an opportune time to jump ship, probably feeling that as a coalition partner it would suffer from the anti-incumbency factor. In fact, if the BJP has until now refrained from breaking up the alliance, in place since 1997, it is mainly because it has not yet succeeded in extending its traditional narrow urban Hindu social support base to other groups. In addition, there is always a lurking danger that the party, by going alone in the fray, without having a credible leadership with state-wide support, may electorally help the rival Congress that has always enjoyed decent support across the regions and communities.

What do the woes of the Akali-BJP government augur for the emergent political scenario in the state as it stares at the 2017 elections? In an established bipolar party system in post-1966 Punjab, the real contest so far has been confined to the SAD (with Janata Party/Bharatiya Jan Sangh /BJP) and the Congress. So would it be advantage Congress then? The fact is that the state unit of the Congress is in disarray, as the infighting between the party’s factions, led by Pratap Singh Bajwa and Amrinder Singh, has left it severely damaged. The simmering tensions are likely to remain even if Captain is brought back as the campaign head/state president. Moreover, the Singh-led Congress when in power (2002-2007) did not succeed in ushering in development or checking patronage based politics.

The troubles of the two main contending parties in the state present an opportunity to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to reap electoral dividends. In a state with only 13 constituencies, the debutant AAP finished third in eight constituencies in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In seven of these eight constituencies, it garnered more votes than the margin of victory of the winning candidate, thus leaving its distinct impact over the final electoral outcome. As the CSDS post-poll survey data revealed, the AAP gained as the voters blamed both the ruling Akali Dal and the Congress for the deep economic crises as well as deeply ingrained institutionalized corruption, nepotism and high-handedness, even though the latter has been out of power since 2007.

Ironically, all is not well with the AAP too. What had worked in its favour was the impeccable public record of the party candidates as professionals and activists. These architects of the AAP success are now in political wilderness as the party ‘high command’ has begun to reorganize the party unit by launching a fresh membership drive and also fill in the organizational posts which fell vacant after the arbitrary removal of district level conveners and workers who have either joined the Swaraj Lehar Abhiyan or simply become inactive. The entire exercise of ‘cleansing’ the party under the ‘Punjab plan’ is reminiscent of the Congress style. The emphasis, as of now, seems more on silencing all the dissident voices within the party, including two of its MPs, rather than strengthening the party organization. The AAP top leadership has apparently refused to learn from the dismal fate of the BSP, which despite making an impact in the early nineties due to a sizable number of dalits in the state (31%), has floundered due to an absence of autonomy and initiative allowed to the state unit. That the AAP candidates in the recently held by-elections have performed disastrously hardly comes as a surprise.

It is this uncertainty in the political air of the state, as each mainstream party fights its own demons and looks for long-term electoral gains, that make the present situation so much more precarious. The only saving grace is that the people simply do not want to go back to the harrowing days of militancy that led to the beginning of the decadence of what once was a ‘model state’. A collective effort to keep a firm check on unscrupulous elements is important not only for the ruling Akali Dal but other mainstream parties as well. Should there be a resurgence of radical politics, every party is likely to be marginalized.

Ashutosh Kumar