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DECODING verdict 2014 will take time; nor will it be easy. Most of us – psephologists, political analysts and even field based reporters – are loath to admit that we did not anticipate this result, far less that the political landscape may have changed, rewriting the rules of electoral politics. Of course, there was wide consensus about a substantial decline in the Congress-UPA numbers or that the BJP-NDA would make major gains. Yet, no matter what the claims post-facto, barring one forecasting agency (Chanakya-C Voter), no one came close to predicting the eventual outcome. Equally that these numbers were dismissed as fanciful if not motivated.

For the first time since 1984 and Rajiv Gandhi’s landslide victory has a single party won a clear majority – BJP, 282; NDA, 336. The Congress managed to lose 162 seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha to be reduced to 44, its allies in the UPA contributing another 15. In 12 states – Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Goa, Orissa, Tamil Nadu, Sikkim and Tripura – the Congress failed to open its account, losing most of these to the BJP. So, is this the beginning of the replacement of the Congress by the BJP as the preeminent national party? We should also not forget the electoral decimation of the BSP (0), Samajwadi Party (5), JDU (2), RJD (2), DMK (0) – with only Trinamool, the Biju Janata Dal, the AIADMK, the TRS and the YSRCP holding on. The CPI(M) too slipped to its lowest figure, threatening its recognition as a national party. Just imagine a Lok Sabha where no party can lay claim to the post of Leader of Opposition.

The story, read through social demographics is equally stunning. The BJP won three-fourths of the reserved constituencies and close to half the Parliamentary segments (47/102) where Muslims constitute over 20 per cent of the electorate. The party, according to post-poll surveys, managed overwhelming support in urban constituencies, with the first time and young voters, and even in Maoist affected regions. Surely, this should force all of us to move beyond our conventional caste/class/community frame of analysis when decoding electoral outcomes and explore how deeper economic, sociological and demographic changes impact voter preferences and choice. Earlier attempts at quizzing poll analysts about the likely impact of these secular changes, including migration and the spread of telecommunications, invariably elicited the response that impact, if any, was statistically insignificant and that voter choice continued to be dominated by considerations of social identity. Hopefully, the ‘experts’ will now be more open in their analytic frame.

Undoubtedly, the BJP victory owes much to its strategists’ better reading of both the secular shifts in society as also the yearning for change in a younger, more aspirational and demanding electorate unwilling to accept the politics of noblesse oblige – rulers generously dispensing patronage in return for loyalty. Even more impressive was the display of organizational resolve and attention to detail. The BJPs media campaign, the focus on leadership, the nimbleness in ‘tweaking’ messages to suit different contexts – all displayed a will to power that far outstripped that of its opponent. Shiv Visvanathan’s article, ‘Aggression of the Ascetic’, Open Magazine, 16 May 2014, deconstructing Modi’s semiotic war, needs to be read with care.

How we comprehend these results will significantly colour the reading of Modi’s as also our future. The pressure of expectations on a leader and party relatively unfettered by coalitional constraints can be frightening. Equally worrying is the urge in a triumphant party to signal its distinctiveness with a flourish. While there is much which needs to be changed, but a proclivity towards quick-fix solutions or a desire to settle scores with political and ideological opponents can easily backfire. The politics of crafting electoral majorities does not always help in post-electoral governance; nor do majorities offer any guarantee of stability or coherence. Narendra Modi need look no further than Rajiv Gandhi in 1984 or Indira Gandhi in 1972.

Fortunately, it does appear that Modi is an adept politician with long-term ambitions. He has, through the campaign, talked of the need to take everyone together, to devolve greater powers to state governments, and to govern better by reducing government. If, alongside rejuvenating a sputtering economy, he can also dispel the fears of all those who see him as a divisive, authoritarian figure wedded to creating a muscular, majoritarian society, then possibly we can look towards the future with greater ease.

This writer, like many others, was wrong in his reading of voter mood and what it takes to craft an electoral majority. Yet, it would be less than honest in not admitting to a niggling unease and apprehension about what lies ahead. As the Chinese saying goes, we live in interesting times.

Harsh Sethi