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FOR once, it is not the Congress Party which is in the eye of a storm. Temporarily, at least, it can afford to stand at the sidelines, even smirk at the discomfiture of the principal opposition party, the BJP. Just when the BJP thought it had settled its leadership dilemmas in the anointment of Narendra Modi as the head of its campaign committee for the forthcoming general elections, it was forced to contend with the upheaval created by the resignation of its patriarch, L.K. Advani, from all party posts. Even more troubling was the fact that Advani not only continued with his position in the NDA, he made public his reservations and disappointment with what he termed disturbing trends in the party – the growth of a personality cult and the trumping of national concerns by personal agendas.

Unlike what many feared or hoped, the drama was short-lived. Advani, after having forced placatory entreaties from all other leaders of his party, helped no doubt by supporting statements from constituent parties of the NDA, formally yielded to an appeal by RSS chief, Mohan Bhagwat, and withdrew his resignation. Any expectation, however, that the compromise negotiations have resolved the many differences – personal, programmatic and ideological – afflicting the BJP-NDA, appears mistaken. As subsequent developments indicate, the resignation drama may well have left all the dramatis personae and groups worse off than earlier. Not a good augury for Narendra Modi.

But first, L.K. Advani. Those now showering grudging praise on the BJP patriarch, discovering in him values of temperance, an appreciation of India’s diversity, even secularism – a reflection of their greater distaste for Modi’s politics – should pause. Advani, in all his future moves will have to factor in his dwindling support base in the party rank and file. It is worth stressing that even those leaders in the parivar, apprehensive about Modi’s rise to pre-eminence, did not seek any reconsideration of the decision arrived at by the BJP executive in Goa. Evidently, they realize that at least in the proximate future, the choice of Narendra Modi is a done deal. Whatever the private reservations, there is little chance of a revolt. Nor could they have failed to notice that despite the many attempts by Advani to free the BJP from micro-management by the RSS, ultimately it was Nagpur whose word mattered.

L.K. Advani may be down, he is not yet out. The issues that he has placed in the public domain, remain. And can be reactivated any time there is a crisis in the BJP’s gameplan, early indications of which are already evident in the statements/moves of NDA constituents – existing or potential. Given the explicit reservations expressed by many in the JD(U) leadership about a BJP led by Narendra Modi, while slyly keeping a door open for Advani, as also the recent statements by both Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik ruling out any alliance with the BJP, the target of 272 for a BJP-led dispensation appears more distant, if it persists in its decision to stick with Modi as its face.

Much of the hoopla around Narendra Modi rests not just on his claims of performance in Gujarat, or even the support that he gets from corporate India, but the assumption that he will be the game changer in the 190 plus constituencies in urban India. A combination of disgust with the Congress-led UPA – a result of perceived non-performance, weak leadership, multiple scams – contrasted with the no-nonsense, growth delivering Modi with his constant invocation of national pride, is expected to galvanize the urban middle class voter, many first time entrants in the electoral arena. Aided by a rejuvenated party cadre, this should propel the BJP to a dominant position. And once the BJP has crossed the magic threshold, others, it is argued, will fall in line. Few after all want a repetition of a United Front/Third Front government.

Unfortunately for the crystal gazers, over the last two decades, the BJP and Congress together have been unable to win a majority of the parliamentary seats, needing support of regional parties to come to power. Worse, for the BJP, not only is its share of the national vote lower than that of the Congress, its conversion rate of seats per percentage of votes is also lower and declining. Effectively, thus, the threshold it must cross to make a serious bid for power is much higher.

A Narendra Modi with undoubtedly greater charisma, but poorer record of taking along compatriots and allies, may well turn out to be a poor choice. More disturbing, the desperation to win might result in more aggressive and polarizing politics. We may all desire change, but do need to pause and consider whether the change Modi promises is what we want or need.

Harsh Sethi