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THE end days of a regime rarely present an edifying spectacle, more so when the regime in question, the UPA-2, has appeared hamstrung ever since Manmohan Singh assumed office the second time. Much had been expected of the government since, defying predictions, the coalition had substantially improved its tally in Parliament. But, instead of meaningfully addressing the many unresolved issues, UPA-2 got mired in a series of scams and scandals exposing the ugly underbelly of contemporary Indian politics. Pushed on the backfoot by charges of corruptions in the allocation of 2G spectrum, the Commonwealth Games, the Delhi airport, and now, Coalgate, the government lost its nerve and sunk into policy paralysis. It is never a good sign when the prime minister of the country evokes, not appreciation or sympathy but pity.

Efforts to blame the compulsions of coalition dharma or point fingers at a recalcitrant and obdurate opposition (read the BJP) determined to not let Parliament function, whatever the merits of the argument, do little to hide the ineptitude of the government and its political mangers. In fact, over the last three years, it is difficult to identify one issue that has been handled well by the Union government. The demand for statehood for Telengana may at the moment be not making headlines. But it is difficult to forget how for months, Andhra Pradesh, a state which returned the largest number of Congress MPs to Parliament, was allowed to burn, in large measure because the Congress, also in power in the state, could not adjudicate a commonly acceptable position amongst its own members.

While media attention is understandably focused on ‘big issues’ – the Maoist upsurge affecting the tribal tracts of central India, the failure to evolve consensus on food and nutrition security, land acquisition, relief and rehabilitation for those displaced by development projects, or needed financial sector reforms related to banking, insurance, taxation regimes and the like, far more disturbing has been the inability to even carry out the routine functions of government. It should be a matter of grave concern that hundreds of key positions, across sectors, remain vacant, adding to delays and uncertainty in decision making. Or that scores of key legislations remain pending and stuck in Parliament.

The most recent stand-off over the government decision to increase the price of diesel fuel, cut back on the supply of subsidized LPG, and permit foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail and aviation – moves which have resulted in one key coalition partner, the Trinamool Congress, withdrawing not just its ministers from the Union cabinet, but support to the UPA and thereby reducing it to a minority in Parliament, needs to be understood in context. Even as Indian Inc and the pink press have welcomed the moves, seeing in them a return to resolve and decisiveness, both the timing and the choice of interventions raise serious doubt about the ruling coalition’s political judgement .

While no one can deny that the under-recoveries of petroleum companies, at existing prices, is unsustainable and thus price correction of petroleum products was long overdue, substantial price hikes without adequately laying out the case before a public already suffering from high inflation can only fuel unrest. And if the burden on the consumer is to be reduced by cutting back on excise duties, both Union and state, should this not have been explained? Similarly, why kick-start the stalled reform process by permitting FDI in multi-brand retail, knowing full well that most political parties, not just the opposition but also elements in the ruling coalition, are not in favour? It is instructive that the Congress led government in Kerala has already announced its decision to not permit foreign retail chains in the state. All that the move does is to add to the charge that the Manmohan Singh government is more sensitive to western interests and criticism than local concerns.

It is possible that the government will be able to weather this storm, primarily because few parliamentarians and parties are keen on early elections. Nevertheless, it is difficult to deny that the final countdown has begun. To survive in office, the UPA-2, now in minority, will be forced to accommodate demands by either the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party without whose support it cannot survive a vote of no-confidence, reasonable or otherwise, and this does not augur well. Sooner rather than later, the Congress leadership will have to decide whether it is better for it to continue in a lameduck manner or bite the bullet and face the electorate. For a party, deeply divided over policy choice and political strategy and worse, unclear about just who will lead it in the impending elections, these cannot be happy times.

Harsh Sethi