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AT a time when the popular image of the political class, across parties, has sunk to an all-time low, many hoped that the elections to the post of President would provide an occasion for statesmanship, and that we would be offered a candidate who would not only inspire bipartisan confidence and reduce acrimony, but also epitomize the highest values of the Constitution. What we were instead subjected to was an unseemly display of political one-upmanship and backroom machinations that left even hard-nosed observers of realpolitik somewhat stunned, further eroding the diminished confidence of the citizenry in our political parties and leaders.

That the Congress and the UPA was finding it difficult to decide on their presidential candidate was no secret. Evidently there were many aspirants to the top post, each enjoying the backing of different constituents and factions within each party. Yet, few anticipated that despite her mercurial reputation, the Trinamool supremo, Mamata Banerjee, would so muddy the waters. Even before a formal decision could be arrived at, she not only ‘revealed’ the preferences of Sonia Gandhi, thus betraying a confidence, but worse, went ahead, rejected the names discussed and, in conjunction with Samajwadi Party leader, Mulayam Singh, put forward her own list of preferred candidates.

In announcing the names of former President Kalam, former Speaker Somnath Chatterjee and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the M-M combine may have felt that they had stumped everyone else. The move not only embarrassed Sonia Gandhi, but also exposed the schisms within the Congress/UPA, forcing them to hastily announce their nominee, Pranab Mukherjee, and to reiterate faith in the leadership of Manmohan Singh. In an equally unexpected move, Mulayam Singh, less than a day later, distanced himself from the joint announcement and extended support to the Congress/UPA nominee, living up to his reputation as a wily tactician. All this, while undoubtedly providing great relief to the Congress political managers, further fuelled speculation about a backroom deal, possibly involving the CBI investigation into the assets acquired by Mulayam’s family and/or a financial package for Uttar Pradesh.

With the Shiv Sena, a core constituent of the NDA, also extending support to Pranab Mukherjee, the likelihood of his elevation to the top constitutional position has considerably brightened. Equally significant is the fact that even before the NDA could come to a decision about putting up its own candidate, another constituent, the JD(U) too endorsed Pranab Mukherjee, a sentiment echoed by some key BJP leaders. Finally, the announcement by former President Kalam, signalling his unavailability, has further narrowed the options for the NDA. If it is keen to not be seen as going along with the UPA, its only option is to endorse the Biju Janata Dal and AIADMK choice, former Speaker P.A. Sangma, even though his chances of winning are negligible.

Irrespective of the eventual outcome, the process has left all political parties/formations worse off, their lack of cohesion fully exposed. To the degree that the presidential elections are a precursor to the 2014 general elections, it is clear that no party is confident about its preparedness. It is no secret that Pranab Mukherjee finally secured the support of his party leadership only because the Congress had been painted into a corner. How ‘accommodating’ he will be in the event of a fractured mandate in 2014 remains an open question. Nor is it clear how a weakened Congress/UPA, carrying the burden of non-performance, scams and repeated electoral defeats, the latest in Andhra Pradesh, will handle a more demanding Samajwadi Party.

The NDA too is caught up in a morass – dissidence in Karnataka, open sniping between Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi, and the inability of the top BJP leadership to pull together. A pale shadow of its former self under Vajpayee, the NDA may face a further erosion in its ranks as the elections draw closer. Finally, the currently unaffiliated regional parties. Even if they retain the states they currently rule, and come together, without the support of the national parties, they are in no position to offer an alternative.

The chances, once the presidential election is over, of the UPA regime using its remaining term in office to give a fresh impetus to a stagnating economy and push through the needed reforms and stuck legislation do not appear bright. In any, case, decisions taken now to rein in the dangerously high fiscal deficit or to kick-start stalled infrastructure projects, will show results only a year later. By that time, general elections will be too close for a weak and insecure party/coalition to take tough decisions and not give in to populist pressures. Nor can we expect the opposition to give up the chance to unsettle the regime. When the weakness of the opposition is the only solace, it is difficult to be optimistic.

Let us brace ourselves for a long and miserable summer.

Harsh Sethi