The problem

NATIONAL elections in India are often a period of raucous celebration. Yet, this time around, as the country gears itself up for the 15th general elections, scheduled for April-May 2009, a pall of uncertainty hangs over the landscape. The continuing slowdown of the economy coupled with daily accounts of mounting job-losses, so far unaffected by the series of hastily announced fiscal packages, has created a decidedly grim mood.

Even more troubling are the developments in the neighbourhood. Nepal, despite the enthusiastic participation of its civil war weary populace in a historic election which signalled the end of monarchy and the ushering in of a republican order, remains wracked by an inability of its various political formations to creatively collaborate in the making of a new constitution. And in Sri Lanka, though the LTTE has been dealt a crippling military defeat, defiant resistance, including the use of terrorist violence, continues such that an end seems nowhere in early sight.

More than the above, what has taken everyone by surprise is the recent bloody revolt, fortunately crushed, by the Bangladesh Rifles, seriously threatening the fragile regime of Sheikh Hasina. There is fear that the resilience of political forces unwilling to accept the verdict of the end 2008 elections and enable the country to forge a new future, unfortunately also involving elements of the armed forces, may once again derail the hard-won democracy.

But most disturbing for regional peace and stability, and thus democracy, is the veritable breakdown of political order in Pakistan. Unmindful of the dangers posed by the Taliban in its western regions and the impunity with which militant Islamist groups can operate across the country, the country’s two main parties – the PML(N) and PPP – are busy in an internecine conflict. This, most fear, is a depressing return to form, creating an environment conducive to yet another intervention by the army.

Little of the above, at least for the moment, seems to be part of the political discourse and calculus of our many political parties, national and regional, in the fray for grabbing a slice of power. And while these are early days, with parties still to announce their final list of candidates or manifestos, most current polls predict a fractured verdict and a hung Parliament, with no single party or alliance – the UPA, NDA, or the Third Front – coming anywhere close to a simple majority. It is thus likely that the coming days will witness an excess of posturing by different leaders and parties, invariably parading their ‘remarkable’ qualities and achievements, and the making and unmaking of alliances, thereby ensuring an increased role of forces whose basic skills lie in crafting post-poll arrangements to cobble together the numbers necessary for assuming power.

For long we have taken justifiable pride in the fact that unlike our neighbours, as also many other Third World countries, India has managed to sustain a democratic, institutional order. Not only are elections regularly held at all levels of the polity, they continue to attract relatively high levels of participation across all segments of the population. Peaceful transfer of power is routine and the process enjoys legitimacy with all parties willing in the main to play by the rules of the game.

The continuing popularity of elections, however, hides a worrisome tendency – that of political parties and politicians enjoying low levels of trust and confidence. More than issues which ought to matter, both to the everyday and long-term chances of individuals and groups, as also the nation – issues related to the health of the economy, employment, everyday security, education and health – the electoral political discourse seems differentially dominated by a calculus of caste and community, of sectional rather than general interest. Not only are politicians and parties across the divide routinely accused of corruption, nepotism and venality, seeking to subvert the rule of law, what is scary is that no institution of the state – the executive, legislature, even the judiciary – is seen as immune to subversion and hubris.

It is this relative decline in the political salience of issues that matter and the increased hollowing out of our institutional fabric that poses the greatest danger, and challenge, to our democracy. And unfortunately, the exercise most central to the construction and maintenance of democracy, elections, seems to place precisely this concern on hold as we vote to decide on who rules.

Is this in part because, irrespective of which party or alliance wins and what issues are foregrounded in the electoral fray, the eventual policies and programmes of governments are differentially influenced by a much smaller number of domestic and foreign actors who formally have little to do with the electoral process? With real power of decision-making not residing in the citizenry, and sometimes even their elected representatives, is it surprising that voters feel helpless and distanced from this democratic exercise. Is voting then, even if high, more a reflection of lack of choice then considered choice?

There are those who argue that this is a over-pessimistic reading, that sixty years into our history as an independent, democratic republic, some of this many finally be changing. For one, modern India with its long civilizational legacy is a young nation, with a majority of our population under thirty years of age. We are also today far more urban, mobile, influenced by and aware of global trends and changes. New communication and media technologies – the mobile phone, internet, private television – have not only altered private behaviour, in particular attitudes towards consumption of both private and public goods, but dramatically transformed the nature of political communication.

The growth of non-government, civil society groups and movements engaged in a flurry of campaigning, mobilization and advocacy has helped bring issues often neglected by traditional political actors to the fore. We now see, probably for the first time, major campaigns on the importance of voting and of making our public representatives more accountable, helped in no small measure by the hard won right to information. All these should change not only the way we do but imagine politics as a continuous activity beyond elections and parties, as increased sections of a more aware and activised youth start demanding changes in our political culture.

In a way it helps that the locus of electoral contests, and thus of politics, has shifted to the terrain of states and below to the tier of panchayats and municipalities, a direct reflection of the 73rd and 74th amendments to the Constitution. Thus, while the absence of an over-riding national issue (and party) may add to the complexity (and uncertainty) of the electoral process and produce a fractured verdict, it paradoxically intensifies the pressure on politicians, parties and governments to perform and be accountable. Hopefully, this should also create an enlarged space for issues and population segments so far marginal to the electoral calculus.

The downside is that a combination of economic slowdown and a worsening security environment may once again turn people’s concerns inwards, the focus shifting to stability and survival rather than a search for opportunity, explicable in a still poor and intensely unequal society. Such risk-averse times also tend to revive the unsettled issues of the past, in particular about individual and collective identity, in a far more intense manner. If so, the days ahead are likely to turn more turbulent, if not violent.

Without for a moment over-emphasizing the significance of the Obama campaign and its eventual triumph in the US Presidential elections, it is critical that we both read and respond to the deep, subterranean urge for change marking our societies. Few analysts, for instance, have remarked upon the significance of the use of the slogan of digital equality by the Awami League in Bangladesh, building upon the mobile revolution engendered by the Grameen Bank. Alongside its clear preference for a secular nation, such slogans not only helped set the Awami League apart from the tired and rooted in the past offerings of its rival, the BNP, they also helped attract a majority of the first-time young voters excited about the prospects of change.

Elections provide a unique opportunity for a playing out of issues and ideas, of experimenting with new ways of reaching out and mobilizing people, above all of constructing new political cultures. Though how all these influence eventual vote shares and seats remains unpredictable, one can only hope that our growing tribe of psephologists and political analysts will for once transcend their morbid fascination with caste and faith community numbers, alliances, vote swings and anti-incumbency. This might even provide some clues to how our people are responding to and changing our politics. This issue of Seminar seeks to explore some of these concerns on the eve of the forthcoming general elections.