THERE are signs that the 2009 Lok Sabha election is just a prelude to the real event soon after. But it could have been the real thing. Look what it had going for it – the world, and India, in the midst of the greatest financial crisis. Surely a time for citizens to make a choice based on leadership. Another great democracy, the US, has just elected somebody on merit, regardless of caste, colour, creed, sex, or dynasty. Surely an example for us in India. Alas!

We recently witnessed the ground-breaking American elections where merit triumphed over prejudice, modernity over tradition. Yet here in India the debate continues to be about Dalit votes being cornered by Mayawati. But even if there is prejudice, and voters still vote on the basis of caste, here is something I don’t understand and, must admit, have never understood. If caste-vote is so prominent, then why is it a secret known only to a select few? Of course, if it is not a secret, it stands to reason that different political parties respond by all fielding the same caste candidate. In which case, the prejudiced voter still makes a choice based on other than caste considerations. Note that in reserved constituencies this is exactly what happens, and there is no reason to think that political parties behave differently in non-reserved constituencies. So score zero for casteism affecting the election (not the vote).

There is another myth that keeps making the rounds, a myth that has been proved to be such in the past, at least statistically. It relates to the widely-held view that Muslims are a ‘vote bank’ and can be counted upon to vote in a predictable fashion. The Congress made this supreme error of thinking in the 1980s, and one hopes it has learnt its lesson. The Muslims are no more a vote bank than the Dalits.

So if it’s not vote bank nor caste politics, then what will be the defining characteristic of this election? That the voter is disgusted with the two major parties – the BJP and the Congress. That is the excitement – what is the voter going to do?

Let us first examine the view from above of the two majors, the BJP first. Unfortunately for its supporters, it has been one implosion after another. Watching the BJP has been more than a bit like watching the Republican candidate McCain’s campaign in the US. And we all know how that movie ended! Just look at what has happened. No sooner had the public forgotten Malegaon that Mangalore emerged. And before the BJP could decide on how much to disown the Hindu Talibans (another similarity between the Republican right and the BJP right – the hard core supporters are the ones who embarrass the most), there was the very public spat between Arun Jaitley and other seniors over who should lead the BJP campaign in Assam.

As research went into the makings of the designated Assam leader, Sudhanshu Mittal, the story broke about BJP’s star steal from the Congress –Varun Gandhi. I say ‘from the Congress’ because of his ‘distinguished’ ancestry in belonging to the (erstwhile?) first political family of India, the Nehru-Gandhis. It is alleged that Varun Gandhi extended the hate campaign which was kicked off by the BJP right in Mangalore – there it was modern women and here Indians who happen to be Muslim. Even if not much else goes wrong any more, it is hard to see the BJP making a real fight on the national stage.

 

The Reactionary Left, as represented by the alphabet Communist parties (the I’s, the M’s and everything in between) isn’t having a productive election campaign either. To say there is disunity in the ranks would be an understatement. There is infighting and back-stabbing; even the Supreme leader, Prakash Karat admits that the Left will get fewer seats than before. Though he doesn’t quite say it, but a number above forty is likely to be difficult.

One would think that amidst this disarray and turmoil in the opposition, the Congress would be looking forward to this election. And perhaps it is. But then, why do most forecasters give it, at best, only 10-15 seats more than it got last time, say no more than 160, and possibly less than the ‘winning’ 2004 election, when the Congress got the same number of seats as it got in 1996, and in 1998? Yes, check the records. The Congress has had a hard time crossing 145 seats, with and without its own Supreme Leader, Sonia Gandhi. In this election, many of Congress’s trusted allies have deserted her, and most proverbial rats only leave when there is a sinking ship involved. So why the perception that the Congress party is also seen to be sinking?

Because of its record. On most matters of governance, its performance has been both embarrassing and shameful. Corruption – by most accounts, has been the highest under any administration. Criminal elements in ministerial posts – highest. Handling of the economy – the worst. The world, and India, is living through the worst economic period in history, and what does the Congress party have to offer? First, denial that the problem exists. Second, arrogance – the problem does exist, but is minor and as proof we won’t have a full time finance minister! And then the part time finance minister makes a mess of even the interim budget. But who cares – the aam aadmi is with us. There is broad agreement that the aam aurat is not with the opposition – but whether she is with the Congress is another matter.

 

So what happens: regional parties strike again. They also see the above, and are choosing to not align with any party. Whether Naveen Patnaik of Orissa, or Jayalalithaa of Tamil Nadu, the answer is the same: wait till after the election.

In 1990, a lot of forecasters (including me!) got the UP and Bihar election terribly wrong because of the Yadav factor – Mulayam and Laloo. Actually, the Congress was the major loser. This year, it appears that history might repeat itself, but with a difference. Part of the excitement is because of the uncertainty – Paswan and Laloo against Nitish Kumar and the Congress playing the spoiler against itself. If the Congress does go it alone, then the sleeper surprise in Bihar might become the conventional wisdom. And the new reality would be welcome by most. Nitish Kumar has clearly distinguished himself by his governance, and by initiatives in social sectors like education. So look for a surprise in Bihar, a near sweep by Nitish.

Of all the potential major players in the next coalition, Nitish seems the most likely winner. And whoever the coalition leader (the assumption right now is the Congress), he will be a treasured ally. And given what the Congress has publicly stated, by its actions, that it does not have anybody capable to handle the finance ministry (this when there are members within its own cabinet who the world considers to be good enough to save the world) watch for important ministry selection to be dictated by a new post-election ally of the UPA.

 

So come May, don’t be surprised if the result is a mixed bag – that’s the excitement. Elections are about surprises. The first surprise is that the BJP/NDA does much better than expected – much like the Congress/UPA in 2004. In the list of possibilities, this is unlikely, for the simple reason that the Congress did well in the past because of its sleeping partners, and currently both the BJP and Congress have lost several of them in this election. The second surprise is that the Congress does spectacularly well (upwards of 200 seats) on its own. More likely than the first, but equally improbable. This for the simple reason that there is no record, besides the refrain Hum Hain Na, that the Congress has to offer. The third surprise is that the regional parties do well, much better than expected. This looks most likely.

Perhaps this round is the last battle of the past. There are numerous forces pointing to the next battle. The youth vote, so prominent in America, is likely to be prominent in India. Given globalization, and given the strong emergence of the middle class, one would have thought that the 2009 election in India would matter, would be different, and would be exciting. Today, I would bet on just the excitement, and that primarily because I am an election junkie. The major reason for this pessimism is the shocking lack of leadership from both the major political parties. So perhaps the most likely outcome is a heavily fractured verdict and a government that lasts only until the next soon after election – Modi versus Rahul.