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IS it not intriguing how most political pundits, now that the UP elections are over and a new government in place, claim that the outcome was a foregone conclusion? Evidently, in these times of short memory, it does not matter that every psephological prediction was off the mark by at least 40 seats in a legislature where 203 represents a clear majority. Or that even those reporters who had more successfully captured the swing in popular mood and predicted that the BSP would be way ahead of the others, were hesitant to write that Uttar Pradesh would, after a decade and a half of fractured politics, deliver such an unambiguous verdict.

Analysts, both those relying on survey numbers or basing their understanding on field reportage, are often mistaken in their reading of politics. But what of the practising politician? Surely they should have been better prepared. Evidently not, if the state of shock characterizing all parties other than the BSP is any evidence. Just as the Samajwadi Party failed to read the popular disgust with their continuing failure on the ‘law and order’ front or with the blatant display of corporate cronyism, the BJP mistakenly believed that the momentum of recent victories along with a proper dash of Hindutva would propel it to victory. The Congress, in any case, was only battling for the fourth position.

The only formation which exuded confidence was the BSP. Its leader, Mayawati had begun her electoral campaign months before the others – shedding an exclusivist dalit orientation, aggressively wooing other disaffected caste and community groups, targeting the deplorable law and order situation and so on. Not only was her list of candidates ready well before the elections were announced, so it appears was the plan for the post-poll scenario. And she went about her business with a single-minded focus, without fuss and with no help from industry, the media, or film stars.

There is little doubt that the UP election marks a watershed in North Indian politics. Not only because the state may finally be free of hung assemblies and insecure majorities. Or even because this is the first ever time that a dalit party has won a majority in a populous province by reworking the old Congress formula of drawing in support across social cleavages. The BSP, importantly, has garnered support from not just its primary base, the jatavs, but also upper castes, the lower OBCs and the Muslim minority, a majority of them poor. For substantial sections of these groups to accept the leadership of the dalits is a virtual revolution. Possibly, it creates an opportunity to break out of narrow, exclusivist caste/jati politics and, hopefully, will let the citizen once again occupy centre-stage.

While unambiguously welcoming these developments, it would be useful not to be carried away. Remember how Laloo Yadav and the RJD flattered to deceive with the slogan of social justice. And while it is crucial to underscore the gains in confidence of the erstwhile lower social strata, the lack of attention to strengthening institutions of governance and wealth creation ensured that the state remained trapped in the vicious cycle of low productivity and growth. Instead of the brahmin-rajput-bhumihar raj, Bihar was saddled with a different but equally development indifferent, socially oppressive and corrupt regime.

We do not know what the Mayawati-led regime has in store for the state. Despite her somewhat questionable record in previous stints as chief minister, except as tough on ‘law and order’, it would be unfair to presume that she has not changed and drawn the necessary lessons from past experience. Not only is she not dependent on external support, the ease with which she formed her cabinet and recast her administration indicates the absence of alternative power centres in her party.

Mayawati has demonstrated that she is both willing and able to reach out across what once appeared as insurmountable social barriers. Maybe she will also instil confidence in that section of the officialdom which chafes against partisan political demands and thus break the hold of vested interest groups. Possibly even win the support of industry and trade to tackle the infrastructure deficit. But first, she has to demonstrate that she can transcend the self-defeating politics of revenge and empty symbolism.

The chief minister’s first visit was to the Ambedkar Park in Lucknow and transfer out those responsible for its shabby state. As a reiteration of faith in the leading icon of dalit self-assertion, this was to be expected. But if only she had also taken a trip to Nithari and consoled those who lost their children, the symbolism might have been more potent.

Harsh Sethi