DISCUSSIONS on Indian politics invariably begin with a ‘who is supporting whom’. This ‘who’ in most cases is represented by ‘caste’ while ‘whom’ refers to the political party. Though a variety of considerations determine the political choice of Indian voters, caste still remains the key variable, though impacting differently in different states. Since the voters in UP are sharply divided on caste lines, this paper analyses the support base of different parties across caste-communities. On the eve of elections, this is of special important since all political parties try to mobilise voters belonging to different caste groups to construct a formidable support base.

Past electoral history indicates a rise and fall of different political parties, largely a result of shifting support of voters belonging to different castes from one party to the other. On the eve of the 2007 assembly elections, this shift in the support base of different parties among various communities has resulted in a political situation where the state seems to be heading towards a bipolar contest. Various political events in the state, especially during the last few years, have led to a greater consolidation of voters behind two political parties – the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). But before we examine the prospects of different political parties and the events leading to such polarisation, it may be useful to analyse the shifts in the support base of different parties over the past few decades and especially after the 1990s.

 

The first phase of politics in Uttar Pradesh could rightly be referred as an era of Congress dominance. During the 1971 Lok Sabha elections it polled 49 per cent votes, mainly because a majority of the voters across caste groups supported the Congress. In social terms the Congress represented a ‘rainbow’; its votes came from all sections of society, though slightly more from among the Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims. The Jan Sangh (the parent party of the BJP) was relatively strong among Brahmins, though non-existent among Dalits and Muslims. It is, however, important to note that it already had some presence among the middle peasant castes like the Jats and Lodhs. The BKD of Charan Singh and the Socialist Party (parent parties of the Janata Dal) had already established a presence among the OBC. Also that by 1971, the popularity of the BKD exceeded that of the Congress among the peasant communities.

The BJP’s rise during early 1990s was principally backed by the upper castes, but also reflected its increasing support among the OBC. It secured 30 per cent of the OBC vote and presumably a higher proportion among the lower OBCs. The BJP success is also credited to a shift of the Dalits from Congress to the BJP, which secured a noticeable one-fifth of Dalit votes. By then the BSP had secured only about one-third of the Dalit votes and had a small presence among lower OBCs and Muslims. The JD had already secured fifty per cent support among the Muslim voters and had a substantial presence among the OBCs, mainly Yadavs.

Despite voters belonging to different castes getting more polarised during this period, this picture remained stable till the 1996 assembly elections. The BJP consolidated its grip over upper caste voters by the 1996 assembly election, managing to obtain nearly three-fourths of all upper caste votes. The other major support for the BJP came from non-Yadav OBCs of the state, especially the lower OBCs.

The BSP’s rise is largely credited to the consolidation of Dalit votes behind the party. While the BSP has garnered substantial support among the Dalit voters, it was for the first time that more than 60 per cent among the Dalits voted for the BSP in the 1996 assembly elections. Among the Dalits, it was the Jatavs who first gathered behind the BSP with other Dalit communities following slowly.

Similarly the Yadavs and Muslims consolidated behind the SP, though a significant proportion among Muslims still resorted to tactical voting for other parties. While a majority among Muslims voted for the SP during the Lok Sabha elections, few among them decided to vote for parties other than the SP depending upon the choice of the candidate. Surprisingly, between the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, the lower OBC too consolidated behind the SP.

 

With the Congress becoming increasingly marginal, the state again moved back to the situation of a three cornered contest between the BJP, SP and the BSP. The period between 1996 and 2002 was one of absolute stalemate in terms of support base of political parties among different castes. No party managed to make substantial headway with voters belonging to a caste, which had not been supporting it in the past. Election results during this period indicate that there had been little change in the support base of any political party. This was partly because there was a deadlock in the social patterns of voting between the 1996 and 2002 Vidhan Sabha elections. All major parties retained their respective ‘vote banks’ with some minor ups and downs. During this period, the upper castes, Dalits and Yadavs consolidated behind the BJP, BSP and the SP respectively. The only difference was in terms of Muslims who showed some preference for the Congress, though the SP remained their first choice. The movement of a sizeable Muslim vote towards the Congress in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections contributed to a marginal revival of the party. Nevertheless, the resurgence was short-lived and the Muslims again moved back to Mulayam Singh’s party.

The process of melting down of caste polarisation which had begun with the 2002 assembly elections, seems to have moved further with all political parties trying to reach out to voters of castes which have not voted for them in the past. Mayawati has been attempting to woo voters belonging to the forward castes, especially the Brahmins. The BSP has created Bhai-chara Banao committees in every constituency trying to bring upper caste voters into the party’s fold. The new BSP slogan ‘Tilak, taraju aur talwar, sab ho gaye haathi par sawar’ is aimed at pleasing voters belonging to the upper castes.

Since a majority of the voters are sharply polarised for or against different parties, most of them are eyeing the voters belonging to the OBC caste other than the Yadavs who still remain sharply polarised in favour of the SP. Mulayam Singh Yadav tried to woo voters from the lower OBC communities by bringing in a proposal for extending reservation benefits for 15 lower OBC castes like Mallah, Kewat, Bind, Dhimar, Kahar, Godia etc. and by treating them at par with the Scheduled Castes. But this proposal was shot down by the UPA government at the Centre. Mulayam Singh also participated in various caste sammelans (Kurmi, Chak etc.) to mobilise voters belonging to these castes. The most recent effort to mobilise voters by Mulayam Singh involves portraying Amitabh Bachchan as the brand ambassador for Uttar Pradesh.

The Congress is also trying to win back voters from all communities in the state by bringing Rahul Gandhi into active politics. The BJP is banking on its national president Rajnath Singh, who hails from the state. The party hopes to consolidate the upper caste votes with, Rajnath Singh, a Rajput leader from the state leading the party. The party is also trying to portray Kalyan Singh as the chief ministerial candidate in the hope of consolidating voters belonging to the OBC castes, especially the Lodhs, the caste to which Kalyan Singh himself belongs.

 

With most of the political parties reaching out to communities other than their traditional vote bank, there are chances of another reconfiguration of caste-communities of the kind that took place in the 1990s. The entry of V.P. Singh’s and Raj Babbar’s Jan Morcha could create possibilities for new political and social configurations in the state. There may be some shifts especially among the Muslims as well as among those belonging to the OBC castes.

Findings from the recent CNN-IBN-HT State of the Nation Poll conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) indicate some shifts in the support base of different political parties since the last assembly elections. Both the BSP and the SP seem to have gained from the realignment of social forces that has taken place in UP. The BSP’s strategy of expanding the support base of the party by wooing upper castes voters seems to have paid dividends. The support for the BSP among all upper castes – Brahmins, Rajputs, Vaishyas etc. – has increased since the 2002 assembly elections. The party also seems to have gained popularity among voters belonging to the OBC castes other than the Yadavs. One can also see some movement of the Muslim vote in favour of the BSP. While the party has managed to keep its Jatav vote bank intact, it seems to have lost some support among other Dalits.

 

The SP also seems to have gained in popularity among voters belonging to upper castes, especially Brahmins and Rajputs and there seems to be some shift among voters belonging to the OBC castes in favour of the SP. The Yadavs not only remain the vote bank, but also seem to be more sharply polarised in favour of the party. The Muslims have been voting for the SP in large numbers, but in the new social reconfiguration the party seems to have lost some support both among the Muslims and Dalits. Some of these gains and losses cancel out each other, but the SP seems to have gained marginally in recent months.

Though the BJP was successful during the recently held municipal elections, this should not be misunderstood as gaining popularity in the state. Probably the BJP was more successful compared to others since the municipal polls were urban elections and the party’s popularity has conventionally been higher in urban areas than among rural voters. The rural voters are sharply divided between the BSP and the SP. Unless the BJP makes some inroads among the rural voters, it will face a difficult task in the forthcoming assembly elections. The shift among voters of different communities away from the BJP may also add to its problems. Barring the Rajputs, the party seems to have lost its support among all other upper caste voters as also among the OBC castes.

The effort made by the Congress seems to have benefited the party to some extent. There is a slight movement among Muslim voters towards the Congress, though their voting intention may be guided more by the nature of political contest in different constituencies. There is also some movement among voters belonging to the Jat community. But this is far from what the party needs for putting up a formidable political contest during the forthcoming assembly election.

 

Though various political parties would be contesting elections, the major contest is likely to be between the Congress, BJP, BSP and SP. Finally, it appears that the real contest is likely to be between the two M’s, Mulayam and Mayawati. These two parties seem to have gained in popular support while the Congress and the BJP have lost some of their support base. The BSP and SP also have the advantage of their party leaders being more popular compared to leaders of either Congress or the BJP. A recent survey indicates that both Mayawati and Mulayam are not only matched in terms of popular support for the party but also in terms of their personal popularity as the choice of chief minister. This would certainly add to the advantage of the two parties.

Even though the state seems to be heading toward a two horse race between the SP and BSP, if the electoral race remains as fragmented as is now, it is unlikely that the forthcoming assembly elections would yield a decisive result. This is no surprise, since no party has managed to get a majority in any election since 1991. This is because the support base of all political parties, which is sharply polarised, has over time somewhat stabilised. And realising the limitation of such a divided support base, all parties are attempting to reach out to voters of different communities. The party that moves further in this direction would certainly benefit in the assembly elections.

But this does not mean that voters are unconcerned about other developmental issues. People in the state are concerned about the performance of the state government during the last three and a half-year rule of Mulayam Singh. Opinions about the performance of the state government seem to be divided, with a little less than 50 per cent being satisfied while 40 per cent indicating dissatisfaction. It is interesting to note that the opinion of the people has remained static over the last year. This would also guide people’s voting preferences.