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WILL he, or won’t he? Ever since Narendra Modi, thrice elected chief minister of Gujarat, unveiled his ambition for the top job in Indian politics, substantial sections of the media and the chattering classes are busy speculating about his prospects. No matter that national elections are still some distance away and all seasoned observers of India’s rumbustious democracy are painfully aware that even a week is a long time in politics.

There is little doubt that Modi, the politician and the man, is a master at occupying the centre-stage. Vilified as ‘mass murderer’ or extolled as ‘development man’, depending on which side of the political spectrum he is viewed from, Modi, as a recent biography by Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, Narendra Modi: The Man, the Times (Tranquebar Press, 2013), opines ‘is one of those politicians whose name prompts extremes of hate-filled anger or outright adulation. Despite polarizing Gujarat and India in more ways than one, Modi brilliantly does what it takes in a democracy to win elections.’

Long distance players in politics, at least those lacking the advantage of family name, or unquestioned support from a reasonably sized party, display an ability to win friends across the political/ideological spectrum, needing to rely on broad-based acceptance by, minimally, not generating hostility. Equally, at least till they have consolidated their position, they prefer to eschew strong positions rather than communicate a decisive machismo. In a political landscape peopled with multiple leaders with considerable ego, it pays to be not ‘too pushy’. None of this can be claimed as Modi’s hallmark, his ‘in the face’ style a clear statistical outlier among mainstream politicians. And yet, if Modi and his supporters are confident of his chances, one needs to explore why.

Modi may already have been anointed ‘the man India is waiting for’ by substantial sections of the corporate class and the media, helped no doubt by a ‘less than glorious record’ of the incumbent UPA-2 regime, hamstrung by scams and a downturn in the economy, and arguably a ‘weak, indecisive, possibly even duplicitous leadership’, seen as incapable of showing a way out of the current morass. The perception that the Congress seems unable to decide on its future leadership – Manmohan Singh seen as well past his prime and Rahul Gandhi still the reluctant, conventional politician – cannot but help make Modi appear more attractive. More so to a young, aspirational electorate which values decisiveness to the messy and slow processes of consensus building, both in politics and society.

Nevertheless, Narendra Modi, a consummate political animal, knows better than most that he has some distance to travel. First, he has to be anointed ‘the candidate’ by his party, by either winning over or sidelining other claimants. Never easy. Then he has to get the support of the parivar, the Sangh and its affiliates. This too is difficult, not merely because of the tricky challenge of remaining true to core ideological concerns while appearing pragmatic and reasonable, but also because these are precisely the people and organizations that he earlier used and then marginalized in his march to power in Gujarat. Disgruntled leaders with fragile egos rarely forgive or forget past slights.

Assuming that he does manage to successfully overcome these two hurdles, is the business of ratification by current and potential allies – critical since no one, including Modi, believes that the BJP can manage the magic figure on its own. And here is where the ghost of 2002, as also his ‘putting off personality’ is a handicap. Even if, reluctantly, one grants that Modi has tried hard to move away from 2002, projecting a new pro-development persona, or that other leaders/parties claiming a ‘secular’ label have an equally troubling record and, thus, the secular/communal polarization cannot be stretched too far, the fact that Gujarat 2002 was our first televised communal carnage has left behind an imprint that cannot be easily forgotten, most so by leaders/parties banking on minority support. Nor is his claim to have propelled Gujarat into the model state for the new millennium without detractors.

Nothing, however, constrains Narendra Modi more than his persona. Whether or not one agrees with psychologist Ashis Nandy’s description of Modi as ‘a textbook case of a fascist personality’, there is little denying his obsessive desire to micro-manage and brook no opposition. His preoccupation with the self, and a willingness to sacrifice erstwhile loyalists once they prove to be a burden, is hardly designed to inspire long-term collaboration. Everything that Narendra Modi has so far done in his remarkable career to political eminence is what, it appears, will hold him back. More than aggressive self-promotion, waiting to be elevated is better appreciated in our culture.

Harsh Sethi

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